Wasps, bees, ants and southern species including Dartford warbler and emperor dragonfly are likely to benefit from climate change in England.
Further north and in the uplands, breeding birds such as curlew and our much-loved cuckoo, damp-loving mosses and liverworts will be put at great risk by rising temperatures, according to new research out today.
The Natural England report assesses the risks and opportunities for species in England as a result of climate change, has been published by Natural England in partnership with the British Trust for Ornithology, University of York, the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and the RSPB.
Dr Tim Hill, chief scientist for Natural England, said: "Our climate is changing fundamentally. There is already evidence of it affecting the habitat of some species, forcing them to live elsewhere. As temperatures rise, the consequences of future climate change for England’s wildlife are likely to be substantial, resulting in wholesale changes in the distribution of our wild animals and plants.
"The findings of this report are vital to help us target conservation at the wildlife most in need. It forms part of our wider work around climate change - such as the ‘Climate Change Adaptation Manual’ - designed to inform and prioritise action on the ground."
Describing the potential shift in distribution of over 3,000 plants and animals that may occur in England in response to climate change, it’s the largest and most comprehensive assessment of its kind ever undertaken in this country.
Looking at where suitable climatic conditions for different species are likely to be found in 2080, given a 2°C increase in average global temperature, over a quarter (27%) of species were at high to medium risk of losing a substantial proportion of their currently suitable ranges.
Although just over half (54%) could potentially expand their ranges, this is not likely to be possible in many cases because of limited mobility or a lack of suitable habitats.
The results reflect the fact that there are more southerly-distributed species than northern species living in England, giving greater scope for southerners to flourish from climate warming.
As a result, those at greatest risk are species which are of high conservation concern, often found in upland habitats, such as twite, golden plover and mountain crowberry.
Other wildlife expected to suffer include seabirds such as the kittiwake, and some lowland species such as lapwing, rare spring sedge, orange ladybird and the triangle hammock spider. In contrast, further population increases are likely for birds such as avocet and the little egret.
Other expected beneficiaries include the large wainscot and white line dart moths.
The report emphasises the need for conservation action to increase our wildlife’s ability to survive climate change. For species whose range will expand as a result of climate change, action is needed to enhance their habitat areas and the links between them to assist their movements.
At the same time work is required to protect and create suitable habitat for colonisation where the climate is more suitable as well as to address other issues which may prevent them occupying newly suitable areas.
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